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Strategy Mob Podcast – Future Customer Value – Logan Keirstead and Kyle Blazenko

They don’t need that guy in the
fancy suit standing in front of them. You know, if you took all that money that you
spent on commissions and you put it towards future customer value you’re
going to see a lot better return on it. And employee value. And your people. Investing in your people. Training. Future like Kyle you said it really
well what did you call it again? It’s just future, I don’t even know what
I just said but it’s it’s future value I mean. Future value. Like it’s not just about you know this transaction it’s about what the value we
can bring and I don’t think dealerships have ever really thought about that, you
know. They’ve always focused on like right now. Like transaction, what’s this transaction
going to do for you what’s this transaction going to do for me? Probably
more so me than for you. But that’s not what the customer wants, right. The
customer not only wants to do a transaction with you but they want to
know what the future look of future transaction looks like and what’s the
value that goes beyond just the purchase of the vehicle. So there’s an opportunity
here right to develop that.

Die Zukunft (the future)

April 7, 2020 | Articles, Blog | 2 Comments

Die Zukunft (the future)

What a frightening thought, the wishes that I had when I was younger – I wanted to be rich and famous with an expensive car. How feelings have changed. In the future I want happiness; in the future I want a wife and children; in the future I want to be famous through German poems; in the future I want to stay fit and healthy. In the present day, I will work so hard. In the present day, I will speak to more people. In the present day, I will find the special one. In the present day, I will train until I can give nothing more. The future is more exciting, because I have lots of reasons to be happy, but I don’t want to wish my life away. I hope you enjoyed the video. Bye!

Future of Transportation

April 7, 2020 | Articles, Blog | 1 Comment

Future of Transportation

– Hello and welcome to the Future of Transportation panel everyone. My name is Brian Murray
and I’m the director of the Duke University Energy Initiative, as well as a faculty member of Duke’s Nicholas School of the Environment, and Sanford School of Public Policy. For those who don’t know, the Duke University Energy Initiative is Duke’s inter-disciplinary hub for all things energy related. We reach across business, engineering, environment, law, policy and
the arts and sciences at Duke to educate tomorrow’s energy innovators, develop new solutions for research and improve energy decisions by engaging business and government leaders. You can learn more about us and what we do at energy.duke.edu and I
believe that that address has been put in the chat box. So thank you so much for joining us today. Of course this event was
originally supposed to happen face to face on Duke’s campus in concert with a networking reception. But while I was disappointed
to change those plans, I’m really delighted to know that the virtual format of this event has made it possible for
folks in far flung locations to attend it. And to get a lot more people here who might not otherwise
be able to participate. So, delighted to introduce
the moderator of this event. Husein Cumber is the
chief strategy officer for Florida East Coast Industries. He’s responsible for guiding
major capital projects from conception through development. One of those, Bright Line, is the first privately owned and operated inter-city passenger rail system in
the US in over 100 years. Another is Fortress
Transportation and Infrastructure, where Husein is involved with several development efforts at terminals in New Jersey, Texas and Ohio. And at New Fortress
Energy, Husein works with the business development team focused on the delivery
of liquid natural gas to domestic and foreign markets. From 2005-2009, Husein
served as an assistant to the secretary for policy and is deputy chief of staff at the US Department of Transportation. Husein is a graduate of
Duke University, rah rah, where he earned a bachelor’s
degree in US national security. So Husein, I’m now going
to pass on the mic to you and you can feel free
to take it from here. – Perfect, thank you, Brian. Really appreciate that. And want to welcome everybody
to this virtual meeting. Obviously we would’ve all
loved to be on campus today. But I do want to stress one thing. My son was going to be up
there with us this weekend ’cause he hadn’t seen Duke in awhile, but he thought it would
be funny to send me all the different Zoom mishaps
that have happened in videos. And so I just want to
remind what Brian mentioned, which is this is being recorded. So just have that in mind as we go through the next hour and a half. What I wanted to do was go
around, give the panelists an opportunity to introduce themselves. Then we’re going to go through
some initial panel discussion. And then we’re going to leave it open for the last 25 minutes or so in order to get to some Q&A. And so I will go ahead and start off by saying that Lisa Poger was
supposed to join us today. She apologizes for the
last minute cancellation, but she has come under the weather. She assures us it is
not coronavirus related, but was under the weather
and couldn’t join us. And so Nathan, I’m going to start with you and if you wouldn’t mind going ahead and introducing yourself. And then once Nathan is done, Ben and Daniel, if you
wouldn’t mind following Nathan. – Okay, thanks Husein. Yeah, my name is Nathan Hsieh. I graduated from Duke University
undergrad back in 2014 where I studied math and
religion and I also engaged a lot with the Energy Initiative
as I helped Daniel to start up the Energy
Club for the undergrads. After I graduated,
decided to take a bit of an alternative path and
took this great opportunity to go live and work overseas
with this fellowship program called Princeton Nagar(?) for three years. I worked in financial
services in Outer Mongolia and at the same time started
up a small social enterprise called Smarter Mongolia
that focuses on providing indoor air at the cheapest possible cost. Returned to the US in September, 2018 and where I would decide
I wanted to reengage in the clean energy side of things. Got involved at the Mobility House where I work as a project lead for the Mobility House
where we basically provide charging infrastructure for
fleets of electric vehicles and managed charging solution. The company is primarily based in Europe, but we’ve been starting up the office here for the last year and a half or so. Yeah, and with that I’ll
turn it over to Ben. – [Ben] Hi guys, this is Ben
Rodgers, can you hear me? – [Husein] We can. – Oh great. Well look, I greatly appreciate you guys including me on this. It’s a real pleasure. I’m a little, trying to adjust here. I’ve been in the energy
space for, mid-90s. Focused mostly on regulated
and merchant utilities. I was also a banker at Goldman Sachs covering the utility
space for a long time. When I left Goldman I co-founded a firm called Broadscale Group
that helps startups grow their business with corporates as well as corporates scaling up startups. I’ve been focused on
kind of the intersection of startups and corporates for
a little over 10 years now. And very much focused on
how to scale up the startups as quickly as possible with
the corporates de-risk, raise capital for these startups. I’m currently a venture partner at Braemar Energy
Ventures in New York City, but also spent a lot of my
time creating a new business with Duke Energy focused
on fleet electrification. – All right, and this is Daniel Ketyer, I’ll introduce myself now. I am currently at d.light,
an off-grid solar energy firm based out of Nairobi, but I’m back in the states safely now. Had to do a little emergency
evacuation last week, but I’m back. Spent three and a half years,
past three and a half years in Now York City with Deloitte Consulting in our mergers and acquisitions practice advising auto OEMs,
advising auto suppliers, advising oil and gas
companies that are trying to scenario plan for the future of mobility. And on the side of that, I’ve been the, I was the lead of our Future
of Mobility community. So I was the chief of staff
for our group that’s focused on thought leadership around the future of mobility and transportation. Graduated from Duke in 2016. Studied public policy. With Nathan, we started up the undergraduate Energy Club and worked pretty closely
with the Energy Initiative. I’ve been to more of these power lunches or these events that we have probably more than I could count. And it’s good to be on the
other side of the table and sharing some of my
learnings with your guys. – Thank you, so we’ve got a super panel and I’d love to just kind of jump into it. And we obviously are living in a very interesting time right now. And before we started with
this kind of downturn, we had a lot of disruption
going on in the energy sector, in the transportation sector
and the healthcare sector, and now we’ve got a lot
of economic dislocation taking place in the market. So I want to start with
asking all the panelists, when you look at the
dislocation occurring, especially with the price of oil, with COVID-19 impacting the
future of transportation, talk to us a little bit about which companies stand to benefit, which ones are probably going
to be the more challenged moving forward as we come out of this. And what I’ll do, Nathan,
why don’t we start with you and then we’ll go in the same order and then give Ben and
Daniel an opportunity to answer as well. – Sure, sounds good. Thanks Husein. I definitely think a
lot of the automotive, the large automotive manufacturers
are going to get hit. I think a lot of them are
having to shut down their manufacturing right now and they’re stuck with a pretty significant wage bill. We work personally very
closely with the German automotive manufacturers and
it’s definitely been the case. Fortunately over there they’ve
got some pretty progressive social structures such that the government is picking up portions of the wage bill. So they’re trying to keep
employment relatively high. In general though, I do
think public transportation is going to see a lot less ridership over the next few months. I just think a lot of things
are going to go on pause and that might remain for a bit longer than the actual shelter in
place policies will go for. I think probably see
a lot less consumption in terms of new vehicle purchases and it’s going to take time
to boost consumer confidence to get people going to the
point where they’re comfortable making big purchases like cars again. I definitely think, also
think, ride sharing companies that have already been
struggling to turn profitable will get hit as well in this scenario. And yeah, I’ll turn it over to Ben now. – Oh, hey, it’s Ben. Yeah, that’s a great question, ’cause I think you got a lot of different competing forces here. I mean, climate change doesn’t
go away with all this stuff. It’s still a main issue. I think one of the key issues is, look at the price of crude oil. The price of crude is going to be, I think, below $30 for quite some time. And that’s going to have a
major impact on the oil patch here in the United States,
but it’s a huge benefit for, it’s an input cost. And so it’s a huge benefit
for a lot of industrial firms. But it’s also a benefit for
consumers who are driving. With crude below $30, gasoline is going to below $1.50 on average. And so they’re going
to benefit quite a bit. From the perspective of
what we’re focused on, around the electrification
of transportation, I think the number in a lot of total cost of ownership
models, so TCO models, are still, they average $2 for gasoline, when you think about
where the savings are. And so I think I would agree, I think that the benefits will be delivery companies will see higher volume. I think Ford and GM and
Chrysler and those guys are going to be challenged
in the short term. Because who wants to go out
and buy a car right now? I think ride sharing is also impacted. I think the fleet management companies have to re-change their model. Fleet management companies
being like Penske, Ryder, those type of companies. Because a lot of their revenues comes from the maintenance of internal
combustion engines. If you switch to all eclectic, that business kind of goes away for them. So they’re going to have
to remake themselves into how to manage batteries,
secondary life of batteries, V2G type technologies are
going to come down the road. And so I think those type of companies are going to benefit quite a bit as we make this transition
from internal combustion to all electric delivery trucks. – Yeah, and I think the
one question that I have is who’s going to survive? Which of these small companies
are going to survive. We just saw over the weekend, Bird mico mobility firm laid off about 30% of their employees. We’re seeing Lime and some of
the other micro mobility firms that are not yet profitable that are having to make significant cuts. So what we’re seeing is
that there are going to be some of these new innovative companies that just aren’t going to survive another three or six months of zero cashflow or low cashflow. So I think short term, it’s
going to be very disruptive to the mobility space. Long term I worry that it’s going to cause folks to second guess
going into and working at one of these smaller startups. And I think it just underscores, when I came out of my undergrad in 2016, there was no shortage of really cool places you could go work. Some of them weren’t profitable yet. Didn’t really matter, you could still make a lot of money. You could still do cool work. I think this is just going to signal that the market’s very risky and there are going to be some
companies that don’t survive and it’s going to push some talent to maybe risk averse types of careers or risk diverse types of jobs, which I think is overall going to be a bad thing
for innovation broadly. That’s one point I’d make. The second point I think, there’s a lot of talk about airlines, air travel, is that going to recover? I personally believe
that it won’t recover. I believe that we’re starting to see, we’re getting comfortable
working remotely, we’re starting to, at least from a business
travel standpoint, we’re starting to see that we can be close to if not more productive if we don’t have to
travel around the world. At least in some of our professions. And I think some of these behaviors, some of these, working from home and some of these other behaviors are going to be sticky
coming out of this downturn. And I think that’s going to cause, that’s going to be very bad for airlines and some of these long-distance travel, long-distance personal travel, I think goods are not
going to be affected. We need food, we need goods, but I think personal air travel is not going to be the same. – That’s an interesting so let’s so let’s switch over to the
future of electric mobility. Notwithstanding the challenges
of the present moment, what’s your assessment of the
future of electric mobility? And so let’s reverse it this time. We’ll start with Ben, and
then go to Daniel and Nathan. – It’s Ben, yeah, I think
what we’re focused on in our business, just to kind of be clear, is we think last-mile delivery, we think transit buses,
electric school buses, all of those should be electric, because they have a pattern where they go out every single day, they do the same exact route, they go on average 55 miles a day, and then they come back to a depot. And then they sit at the depot for eight to ten hours a night. And so our view of the world is that that segment of the marketplace should be all electric, because it’s very manageable
from a battery perspective. And so whether it’s last-mile delivery, FedEx, Amazon, UPS, DHL, all those trucks, as well as USPS, all those, so that’s Class
Three to Class Six type trucks, should all be electric,
because it’s very manageable and the cost of switching
over to all-electric from internal combustion
engine is fairly economic. And battery prices will
continue to come down for another 50% over the next
four or five years or so. So we think that part of the market is very attractive for
all-electric transportation because of the reasons I just mentioned, but also it goes back to the economics. The total cost of ownership, which a lot of these companies talk about, which is their TCO analysis is going to get, the returns
are going to get better as battery costs continue to decline and the overall performance of these last-mile
delivery trucks get better. So I think, even under
this adverse condition, economically as well as a
low oil price environment, I do think you’re going to
see many more companies switch over to all-electric delivery and transportation in transportation, mostly because a lot of
their benefits come from the reduction of maintenance
of internal combustion engines. So when you’re talking about TCO savings, 75% of the savings comes from reduction of maintenance costs, vs. 25% reduction in electricity costs. And so we think it’s going to
continue to grow quite a bit. – So Ben, let me ask you
a quick follow-up to that. Everyone has talked about,
they’ve kind of invoked GM, Ford, kind of the legacy US car makers. Are they doing enough to
stay relevant long term, if this electric mobility shift is happening in the industry? – Great question. I think in some sub-sectors they are. Like Ford has a truck called the Transit, the Ford Transit, and they can turn that into an
eTransit truck very quickly. Mary Barra, the CEO of GM just announced a $20 billion initiative
on electrification. A lot of that is focused on delivery. They’re not as far ahead
as Ford on delivery, but they’re certainly want to catch up. Now all of this that’s just occurred here in the last couple months, I think delays some of this a little bit. But over in Europe, there’s
a lot of activity going on with Daimler, with their eSprinter van. Daimler owns Freightliner,
so the Class A trucks are starting to go all-electric faster than people have realized. And so again, it goes
back to maintenance costs. I think, when you go all-electric, you dramatically reduce
your maintenance costs and it’s significant over
a period of 10-15 years. – [Husein] All right, Daniel. – Yeah, I’d like to underscore Ben’s point about maintenance. When we think about
the future of mobility, at Deloitte, we’re thinking shared, electric,
autonomous mobile equality. Seam is the term that we’ve been using. And when you think about
autonomous mobility and when you think about ride
sharing and shared mobility, what you start seeing is that these vehicles are traveling many more miles than they previously had. If you’re thinking at an
autonomous mobility future, you’re going to see tons, potentially tons more
vehicle miles traveled. And you’ll see the maintenance benefits will start to add up pretty significantly. If you can reduce your
maintenance costs by 75%, by going electric, that’s significant. Or I think Ben’s point was 75% of the savings were maintenance, but point is, maintenance is a huge savings there with electric. The way I’m thinking about it, though, so I’ve done a good amount
of work with oil majors in the US who are thinking about, what is the long-term
decline in oil demand going to do to our business? Where you see today, about 2/3 of oil ends up going towards transportation. That ends up being the end use of oil. And what the oil majors are thinking is, is it inevitable that we’re in
an electric mobility future, or is it potentially hydrogen? Or is it potentially an end-state where we can continue to have internal combustion
engines in some use cases and plug-in hybrids in others and battery electric in others. So I think the magnitude of
electric vehicle penetration is up for debate, and some
of the most influential stakeholders in this space
certainly do not want significant electric vehicle penetration because it fundamentally
threatens their business. So that’s some thing that
I’m paying attention to is who is, what is this magnitude of electric vehicle penetration, and what is the pace? How quickly we get there. – Great, Nathan, as you
tackle this question, can you think about it
from the perspective of, we talk about how vehicles
and other end uses will be more energy
efficient, energy friendly, but go back to how do we end up generating the electricity needed in a way that actually is also responsible as well. – Sure, of course. That’s something that
we are very focused on here at the Mobility
House. (clearing throat) Our business model is fundamentally based off of the fact that we think batteries are
going to be a big part of that responsible mix of how the future fleet is powered. We think that batteries will
be a big part of the solution to the renewable integration problem. And by that I refer to the duck curve, economics and variable resources. I definitely think that, yeah, so our business model
is based off of the notion of trying to integrate vehicle
batteries with the grid. The batteries can provide grid services like frequency regulation, other behind the meter services like participating
demand response programs, peak shaving, that’s sort of fundamentally what the business is based off of. I do, sort of stepping back, from a personal perspective, still believe that there
needs to be base load at the end of the day. I think natural gas is a
step in the right direction in that you get much less
carbon per kilowatt-hour, but it’s still carbon based. This may be a relatively
unpopular opinion, but I do think the only carbon free sort of base wood out there, is nuclear, but I think the
political feasibility of that might be doubtful, just
given what we’ve seen over the last several decades. But I just bring it up in that
I urge people to think about what the trade off they want there is. – Great, thank you. Ben, I’m going to go back to you. I want to talk a little bit about the big industry players right now and what’s happening with them. And talk to us a little bit about Tesla. ‘Cause it seems to be the
question and the company that seems to dominate the conversation. They’re at $900 stock
price before the virus hit the world economy. Where are they five,
10, 20 years from now? And is that why the legacy companies are seeing themselves
in this catch up mode, is they see the popularity of the company and the trajectory it’s on right now. – Yeah, I think Tesla
is really interesting. From a valuation perspective, it’s hard to get people focused on Tesla as just, when they think about the volume that they
produce vs. GM and Ford, it’s hard for them to get their
arms around the valuation. But I think the secret sauce
really is the time and effort that Elon has spent on the
battery and the software. He is so far ahead of GM and
Ford and Chrysler in that area. I think he’s going to
keep that learning curve for many, many years. And so I think their, I think the stock goes back up again to where it was before this crisis. I think he’s going to certainly improve on battery and software, but I think the main
differential is again, the focus that he’s had on
the battery and the software. It’s really, it’s an impressive car. From a performance perspective, it’s better than any other car out there. And I think all the other
companies that are out there are very concerned about it. Because they do find themselves
so far behind where he is. And he’s doing things to make
the company more integrated with regards to solar. He’s purchased the solar company. He has a lot of charging stations. And so he’s trying to get
more and more integrated with fleet electrification an overall electrification
by becoming more integrated. So I think, to answer your question, I think the stock is higher. It goes back up into the $900 range. I think he keeps his lead
over the other companies for the next five, six years or so. Battery prices are only going to come down over the next five years based off of Bloomberg New Energy Finance projections. And so his cars are only
going to get more economic. That would help, obviously hit margins. And so I just think the key here is really all the time and attention he has on the battery and software. – Super, Nathan, I’m going to
switch back to you for a second. We were talking a little bit about the generation infrastructure
that has to be put in place. So I’m going to take it to the other end, which is when Tesla started, they wanted this completely
closed-end system. They had their Super Chargers
just for their vehicles. Talk to us a little bit about who is going to build out
the charging infrastructure. Who’s going to be the, is this a winner takes all type scenario? Are there going to be
two, three big players? And then how does that affect the big gas companies today? So your Exxon/Mobile, Chevrons, BP, that have spent billions of dollars with their franchise owners building an infrastructure out throughout the country for
gasoline powered vehicles. – Yeah, thanks for the question. That’s are really fantastic question. And one that we are
thinking about very closely here at the Mobility House. We’ve talked to a lot of different folks who are trying to get to know the space and see what pieces they might be able to pick off for themselves. That’s a range of banks, utilities, OEMs, oil and gas, sort of really,
everyone across the board that sees that there’s an opportunity to invest in infrastructure and perhaps get some sort of return there. Some sort of long term,
repetitive cash flow. We’re sort of under the impression, based on all the different
folks we’ve talked to that really, the utilities
are best positioned to take most of it. I think there’s a couple different ways you can think of it, one, I think they have a
huge comparative advantage in terms of their balance sheet. Fundamentally, what we’ve seen is they’re looking for a repayment
period on the time scale that the folks in the private equity world just couldn’t even think on. They know infrastructure
and they know what it’s like to own and operate it. So we think that that will be a big, they will take a big
portion of the pie there. We also think that oil and gas definitely have the
balance sheets to pick up the assets that they need
as the industry develops, but we’ve definitely seen
that they’re not really trying to be too proactive or cutting edge on taking that risk in moving
the needle forward there. I definitely say utilities
are really well positioned to take a good piece. And oil and gas will sort of hover around, observe and see what the winners will be that they can try to acquire. – So Daniel, just one
kind of follow up to that. So what happens to all the
ancillary support companies that have developed over the past decade. So call it the Jiffy
Lubes of the industry. How do they stay relevant? How do they pivot their business model? Or are they going to be just overtaken by the disruption that’s occurring? – Yeah, I think the question is, what is the pace of the disruption? How quickly is the
disruption going to come? And I think one of the
things with a company like a Jiffy Lube, they’re going to need to
look at how to diversify and they’re going to need
to look at where other, like where these companies
are making investments. I know, I’ve done a lot of
work with the oil majors. The way that most of these oil majors are structured today is they
have an upstream business which focuses on extraction of resources. They have a downstream business which focuses more on retail. And there’s been a shift
from resources in upstream to resources in downstream, but the focus has been
more in petrochemicals and more plastics rather than, there’s been more investment
in those types of assets rather than in the retail stations and the retail stations
which would be complementary with some of the lubricants
retailers like a Jiffy Lube. And so I think you’re starting to see the big players in the space start to position the pieces, but in a way that is really not
prepared for a retail network where it’s going to be electric focused. I think most of these players, I think even Jiffy Lube or I
think even the OEMs, frankly, think that the shift
towards electric mobility is going to take place over
decades and not necessarily years. I think many of us who sit
closer to the technologies and the more innovative players, and we read up on the
Tesla earnings releases and we see the exciting
things that are happening, we think that this is months if not years, rather than decades. So I guess to answer your question, I think, yes, they’re in trouble, but they don’t think
that they’re in trouble for the time being. They think this’ll happen
in 2040, 2050, 2060 and they’ll have time to reposition their assets accordingly. – Taxi companies thought the same thing. So we’ll see how that goes. I want to switch a little
bit to supply chain. And obviously with China being in the news the last couple years, the trade wars and now with the coronavirus, I think Americans are starting to realize the dependency we have. Whether it’s been the
pharmaceutical industry, whether it’s components
going into defense weapons that we manufacture here, rare earth materials, items like that. So when we think of
batteries that we need, specifically the lithium ion batteries, whether it’s for Tesla or
other vehicles that come, and then just battery storage in general. So 97% of the lithium
ion is based in Asia. China, Korea and Japan. So Ben, I want to start with you. How does current events affect our ability to get our hands on the
materials that are needed in order to be able to create
a clean energy environment? – That’s a great question. Because I think a lot of people
are starting to think about should we bring back
more production to the US with all that’s going on over in Asia? The biggest players are over there. I mean, Panasonic, Samsung, LG Chem, CATL, they are by far the biggest players in lithium ion cylindrical cells. And so I think that’s where
we have to think about how do we source those resources, and make sure that we have the right trading policies
with those companies? Because it is going to be very challenging when we see this growth. We know this growth is going to happen in electrification of transportation, and we’re going to, obviously,
in the next several years, 10 years, 20 years, still
be relying on lithium. But there’s a lot of work being done on other materials. Substituting cobalt,
substituting magnesium. How does zinc play a role in
transportation for batteries? So that innovation doesn’t go away. And I think we need to
encourage it even more because we can’t be relying on lithium ion coming from a certain sector of the world unless we have really good trading policies with these companies and these countries. And so I think it’s going
to be vital to make sure that we have the right
access to these materials going forward, which
necessitates making sure that we have good relationships
with all these countries across the board where
they have these materials. – Daniel, your thoughts on that? – Yeah I think the cobalt question is the big question right now. What is the future of the
lithium ion battery going to be? Is it going to be more cobalt intensive? Is it going to be more nickel intensive? Right now about 75% of
all cobalt in the world is produces out of the
Democratic Republic of Congo. In Africa, where China has made very significant direct investments in that sector. And has ownership by proxy
of the assets in DRC. So that obviously has significant concerns for US national security and for the future of mobility in the US, but more broadly as, are we going to be so dependent on a single source, single material to play a role in our
transportation system? So what you’ve actually been seeing is, Tesla and a few others
begin to really experiment with can we reduce our cobalt
usage in our batteries? Can we shift towards more nickel focused? And start to look at other
types of battery chemistries? The down side is that
cobalt is very energy dense and that’s part of the reason
why electric vehicle ranges are so high and have been able to get as high as they are today, is because you’re able to use some of these materials like cobalt. But that’s something to pay attention to in the next few years, few months is, what are the innovations
in battery chemistry, and how does that impact the global game in terms of who as the resources and who has the power and who
influences the supply chain. – Super, Nathan, do you want to add some? – It’s a fantastic question
and frankly it’s a tough one as I think it relies really heavily on our foreign policy standpoint, which obviously stems from our leadership and administration and the application of how
they use policy to shape trade. And the different forms it can take. Whether that’s something
like the TPP or a trade war. So it’s a tough one. I do think you can approach it from a couple of different standpoints. One, you can look at
trying to reduce dependency by improving, by looking into R&D for good battery and
charging technologies, higher energy density, better standardization
across charging platforms. I think things like that will allow us to alleviate our dependency, but fundamentally, unless
the core technology itself shifts away, or we can figure out a way to build up manufacturing
and production domestically, it’s going to be a tough balance to play that certainly has a wide
array of implications. – Super, so I’m going
to pick up a little bit on your, on the political
identification that you mentioned with respect to trade
wars and trade policy. So the regulatory
climate obviously affects our ability to be able to, not only create a climate where people are
willing to take the risk to look at new technologies, but also affects the financial capability of a lot of these companies being able to address the challenges at hand. So I want to ask this
question kind of two-fold. One is, what are some of
these regulatory barriers facing the industry? And number two, knowing there’s a lot of discussion right
now of a stimulus four bill that may focus a lot on
transportation infrastructure, what would your recommend policy makers think about in stimulus four? And are those a direct result to help the regulatory framework? Or are there larger policy issues that need to be debated right now? So Ben, let’s start with you, and then we’ll let Nathan
and Daniel go after. – Yeah, and let me just
ask a quick question from a regulatory perspective. Are you referring to
just regulations around all-electric transportation? Or could you just be a little bit clearer from a regulatory perspective? – Yeah, sure, so regulatory issues, everything from autonomous vehicles to being able to have charging
infrastructure deployed where you don’t have county
by county specific regulations or state by state regulations. You have a lot of players
that want to come in and not be subject to a
patchwork of regulations, but at the same time,
at the federal level, sometimes there is a
feeling that you want to be able to pick winners and losers. But you end up getting a patchwork of investments that take place, but you also don’t have a lot of people that are willing to invest a lot of money not knowing if they’re going to be subject to different regulations
as they continue to expand. It makes it harder for
investors to want to back a company when you don’t know the scalability of that venture. – God, that’s helpful. There’s two worlds here. One is kind of the startups
that are focused on this space. And then there’s the larger companies, more the incumbents who are in this space. And then there’s also regional issues too. Like California always leads from an environmental perspective or reduction of carbon perspective with their policies and their incentives. So a lot of work around
electrification of transportation is done out in California first, because they have much larger incentives. We’ve got to think beyond that because we just can’t run
a business on incentives. It has to work in every
state across the country. And so all the conversations
that we’re having with last-mile delivery companies is really centered around not
regulations, but economics. And so if the economics make sense in terms of the total cost of ownership, if it’s better under an
all-electric scenario, and it’s more affordable
than diesel trucks, they will make that switch. Because again, the benefits
are reduced maintenance costs, reduced fuel costs, will
outweigh any premium that you have to pay
for all-electric trucks. And so we think it’s less, the questions we’re hearing is less of a regulatory perspective, but more about economic perspective. And so a lot of these guys are running their quote TCO models
to better understand whether an electric school
bus may cost $300,000, and the diesel bus of
a bus costs $115,000, how do you make that gap work when the battery is still
50% of the bus’s cost? And so the companies
that we’re talking to, UPS, FedEx, Amazon, they’re
not focused on regulatory, they’re focused more on economics, whether this is the
right economic decision, what’s the payback period
for making the switch, and then it’s also how much
carbon are we reducing? And so you can really look
at and calculate very quickly how much carbon you’re
reducing by making the switch. And so I know I’m not
answering your question with regards to regulatory issues, but what we’re hearing from
a lot of the transit agencies and school bus operators
and last-mile delivery, is more about an economic decision than a regulatory decision. I do think from a regulatory
perspective or policy issue, I think price of carbon’s going
to come back on the table. Because the stimulus bills that are $2.2 trillion and higher, we’re going to need a way
to pay some of that back. And I actually do think
a bipartisan approach to a carbon price is going to
come down the pike here soon. And some of that will be
helping the economic numbers for these companies to
switch over to all-electric and make that decision a lot faster. – Great, so Nathan, let me
add a little more context to the question before we switch to you. So we are a country where our infrastructure is
built using the gas tax. And everything we’ve talked about today leads to the conclusion
that the highway trust fund would actually get reduced. So how do we, from a
federal policy perspective, and even a state policy perspective, continue to have the dollars needed to invest in the infrastructure? Because whatever technology wins we still need the infrastructure in order to be able to get the goods from, whether coming in from a port, whether being manufactured
here, to the actual consumer. – Yeah, that’s a fantastic question. I did want to take that question in terms of the infrastructure direction just because what we’re finding
working with fleet managers is that people aren’t
used to being responsible to own these assets in
their business model. You know, the charging
infrastructure assets. Most fleet managers don’t have to put in the gas pumps at their sites. That’s really elsewhere. So it’s a really important question that needs to be addressed. And I think a lot of it will stem from some sort of incentive program. Where exactly that comes from, whether it be a carbon tax,
or I think a good example is California’s cap and trade model in terms of trying to figure out a way to sustainably allocate
funding towards infrastructure. In California the cap and trade model has successfully, from
I think last year on, been able to allocate about $500 million towards clean air, clean
mobility incentives. So I think that’s a
good model to draw from. I’m not entirely sure in terms of what’s politically feasible, but I definitely think that’s
the model to look towards. – Great, Daniel, anything to add? – Yeah, I would say, so when
I was at Duke, 2012-2016, our head of innovation and
entrepreneurship there, Eric Toone, had come over from ARPA-E. He was one of the, I believe one of the founding directors of ARPA-E, which is essentially the early stage lab to market commercialization arm of the Department of Energy. And I think that is a model that blew up under the Obama administration as a way to bridge the gap from these
early stage technologies that maybe aren’t economically
feasible right now, but could be in a few years
as costs start to come down. As states start to offer
more favorable incentives like you see in California. So I think more programs like ARPA-E, which obviously is not, investments in ARPA-E have not increased under this administration. So I think things like that, that’s something that, those types of allocations
within the federal budget, that’s something that the
Executive branch can do. I think, ideally, a carbon tax, I think we all agree that
some price on carbon, whether it’s a carbon
tax or cap and trade, would make this whole
transition to clean energy and to shared electric
autonomous mobility, it would just make that transition more seamless and less
painful for everyone involved. And I’m less bullish on that
passing in the next few years, but I think from an executive standpoint, I would say make more investments in these early-stage technologies, in charging, in electric
battery chemistry, things like that. And that’s something that ARPA-E has done. – Super, so just kind
of a heads-up to those that are on the virtual meeting, a couple we’re going to ask,
then we’re going to open it up and we’ll have Bryan
Koen ask some questions that are coming in from
folks in the meeting. What I would also ask is, I know we’ve got a lot of utility leaders and other experts on the meeting, and if you wouldn’t mind
giving any of your advice in the chat box, that would be appreciated and super helpful. So last couple questions for the group. I’m going to start with a
little more of a fun one. So there are a lot of Duke students or recent graduates on the
meeting, or in the meeting. And would love to hear
one or two companies that aren’t household names that each one of you have come across in your workplace that
if you were aspiring to go into the industry and
be part of the disruption that’s taking place today, these would be a couple companies that, if you were a Duke student today, you’d kind of want to go
look at and join them. So Ben, I’m going to
start with you on that. – Actually, I would highlight my fellow panelist’s
company, The Mobility House. We’ve been talking to the
executive management there. They’ve done a lot of
great work over in Europe with regards to secondary
life of batteries as well as vehicle to grid technologies, It’s also called VGI. And so I think that’s going to be, if you think about again,
these three main areas of last-mile delivery, transit
buses and school buses, a lot of the work that they’re doing replaces the work that’s
being done by the Penskes, the Ryders of the world,
because right now, what they do is maintenance on the engine and everything associated with the engine. That’s all going to be replaced
by how you manage the battery. So you talk about Jiffy Lube earlier, if you don’t have that oil there, that business kind of goes away. And so everything is now centered around managing the energy, which is the battery. And so I think the work
that Mobility House is doing over in Europe, we’re talking to them about doing work here in the US. And all kind of services
and solutions around how you manage that battery from when it first goes into the truck, into its secondary life, and most likely being used on the grid, I think is going to be an enormous area of opportunity for startups. – Thanks very much, Ben. I was going to say The
Mobility House as well, but it sounds better coming
from you than from me. I think, I’ll just comment on a couple, they’re not going to necessarily
be not household names, but they are the general
areas where I think the most interesting
movements are happening in the electrification space in general. I definitely think
Tesla is leading the way in terms of, especially the LDV market in that they have the largest volume and production capacity of
electric vehicles right now. That being said, one the resources of the large automotive OEMs realigns, I think it’s going to be, they are going to pick up
a good bit of market share just because they have the
workforce, the resources, the manufacturing capacity right now to produce an amount of
vehicles that I don’t think Tesla will be able to get to. The other area which I
think is very important to look out for, that hasn’t really gotten much of a comment on so far, is the Chinese automotive manufacturers. They’re very much so, they’ve been very dominant
in developing markets with some sales in Europe, but they are very quietly taking a huge amount of market
share throughout the world. In the, especially the electric bus base. That being BYD especially. That being said, I’m not
sure if those companies will play in Europe and
the US and that we’ve seen, at least this is my, I think Husein, you might be able to comment better on this, but I think BYD was recently banned from participating, or receiving any money
from federal grants. So they may not be able to
do that much business here, but I definitely think
they’re an interesting group of companies to look out for in terms of how things will
develop over the next few years. – [Husein] Great, Daniel. – Yeah, so I may be biased,
because I joined Deloitte coming out of undergrad. I joined a pretty huge firm, but I think there’s a lot of value to joining a bigger
player in the industry. Ben mentioned LG Chem, Panasonic, Samsung, some of the biggest players
in the battery world. I think finding a rotational program or a role at, an entry level role at a firm like that where you can wear a bunch of different hats and see the world from
a finance standpoint, from a policy standpoint, from
an engineering standpoint. I think doing a few years
in a program like that would be incredibly valuable. You’ll start to see who
the emerging players in the space are. Who the emerging technologies are. And I think you’ll have a good sense of the niche that you
potentially want to go into. I think with Deloitte, I think there’s, a lot of people have, there are pros and cons with consulting. A lot of people have
opinions about whether going into consulting is the right thing. ‘Cause it seems like
everyone at Duke undergrad is trying to get a job at
McKinsey or Deloitte or Bain. And I think there is a ton of value if you do it for a couple of years. You see what the world’s like and then you find the niche
that you want to go into. So that’s my advice. – Super, thank you panelists. We’re now going to switch. I’m going to let Bryan, who’s been collecting questions coming in, to go ahead and ask
some from the audience. – All right, thanks, Husein. And thanks to all the panelists for a great discussion so far. I think I’ll start by moving us back to where we we started the
outset of the conversation. Husein, you noted that
we’ve got a number of utility experts in the
digital audience here. And so I’m going to start with
a question from Divesh Gupta. Divesh has a great title,
he’s director of strategy for the utility of the future
for Baltimore Gas & Electric, and he’s also a graduate of Duke Law. And Divesh writes, “We’re seeing
major emissions reductions “around the globe in urban environments, “for example in Los Angeles, “due to the reduction of
vehicles and transit vehicles “on the road during
this pandemic response. “How will this data point
affect views and investment “in electrification in
the transportation sector “once we’re through
this challenging time?” – So who from the panel
wants to take that? – I’ll take it. I’ll take a stab at it. The evidence is clear. When you look at these heat maps and you show there’s no cars on the road and there’s no emissions, that’s very clear, but
I think that’s kind of what you’re going to see
when you go all-electric, the transit buses and the school buses and last-mile delivery
from that perspective as well as on the consumer side. And so I think it’s, the answer coming from the utility, PG&E, a subsidiary of Exelon, I think utilities play a great role in helping to transition this
industry to all-electric, because they manage electrons on the grid. Electrons are flowing
through the batteries. Electrons are flowing through
the charging stations. The charging stations are
connected to the grid. And the trucks and buses are connected to the charging stations. And so I think utilities
are in a very nice place to help accelerate this
transition to all-electric, and their communities
are only going to benefit from a health and wellness perspective, as they transition these
buses and trucks and cars to all-electric, and you’re
going to continue to see those aerial views of cities
and towns and counties where they have less
atmospheric emissions. Utilities a hundred years ago used to own the town’s`
transportation systems. And so they were integrated that way. I think you’re going to
see a lot of utilities want to partner with the
transportation companies so that they can help those companies make this switch faster so that you can see these results that impact their customers,
the utility customers, in their communities, with less emissions. – Great, Brian, we’ll go back
to you for another question. And I actually mentioned to folks in the meeting that Brian is on staff at The Energy Initiative, so that’s why he’s been
collecting all these questions. – Thank you very much, Husein. And I thought I’d move
on to a finance question. We had an audience member named Becca W, whose question contained a
great point about finance. And I apologize, Becca, I wasn’t able to find
your title in the chat, but Becca’s question reads, “I’m noting that most of this conversation “has focused on private sector action “in delivery, fleets
and personal vehicles. “With so much mobility falling
to state and local agencies, “how can we increase
coordination between sectors “like utilities, transit
agencies and school districts? “For transit districts in particular, “the maintenance budget is
usually separate from procurement “and can’t normally be blurred, “so the maintenance
savings may not get them “over the initial cost delta “between an electric and
conventional diesel bus.” – Daniel, I’m going to give you that one. – Yep, so I think obviously
private public partnerships are going to be very important. I think as someone who
has lived in New York for the past 3 1/2 years, one the of the things
that I’ve been following that I’ve been particularly
interested in is been how the MTA and how
New York City Transit has seemingly improved significantly
in just a couple years. We went from having massive delays to having most of the
trains running on time. And I think a lot of that had to do with the leadership in the public sector, but it also, one of the things
that we saw in New York was, some of these startup incubators that were focused on Transit Tech. And so I know I’m speaking more on transit rather than on like the bus fleets, but I think there are these ideas that you used to just
see out of Silicon Valley and Y Combinator where you’d
have these 12 week, 16 week incubator programs or accelerator programs where you could apply with a startup idea and get some advice and get some funding and try to turn it into a business, and now you’re seeing in New York, you can do the same
thing with Transit Tech. In Hawaii, Hawaii is one
of the first examples with the Elemental Accelerator in Hawaii, where you can apply with
an early-stage idea, and it’s kind of a public private
partnership type of model. So I think those are the models
that seem like they work. And I think that the good news is that there are more and more
cities and states governments that are using incubator
and accelerator models as a way to drive innovation
and more investment in the public sector. – Great, Ben or Nathan, you
have anything to add to that? – I’ll add one thing quickly that, one thing that we’ve definitely seen, I’m just trying to think
of ways in terms of how to increase, as you mentioned, that sort of public private partnerships, those public private partnerships. One thing I think we’ve definitely seen, especially with fleet managers, and I refer to fleet managers
generally as also inclusive of that public transit
space, so bus operators, you know I think there’s definitely a lack of understanding at the moment in terms of what the
operational implications are of electrification. These fleet managers understand, they understand how their
current fleet operates, they understand engines, they get their duty cycles, they know the maintenance schedules, but with all that changing with this new electric business model, they also now need to get geared up in terms of knowing infrastructure. And that goes back to the very basics of what we learned in
energy and environment at the very start of the difference between a kilowatt and a kilowatt-hour. So I definitely think there’s
a big educational component that can help to facilitate
that transition as well. And that, those are the sorts of questions that we’ve had to answer a lot bringing together both fleet
and facilities managers. – Super, so speaking of
facilitating transitions, Nathan, I think your point about
the lack of understanding of the implications of
electrification is a good one. And we’ve got a question from
a current graduate student, Liz Shenaut, who asks,
“What organizations should “and what organizations are currently “working the most on the
education and the marketing “of non internal combustion
engine vehicles?” Liz notes, “My impression
is that individuals “and fleet managers are under informed.” And she notes that last
summer she attended a clean transportation
fleet related conference and was very surprised to find a number of folks marketing
fossil fuel related products. – Ben, you want to take that one? – Sure, I mean, from the
utilities perspective, a lot of research is being done at the Electric Power
Research Institute, EPRI, which is funded by the 44
investor owned utilities across the country. I think also, the trade group
the Edison Electric Institute, EEI, is also an organization that puts out a lot of quality work around electrification of transportation. And so I think various DOE labs, I know that Sandia is doing a lot of work in this area as well, but I would highlight that EPRI and EEI are putting out a lot
of quality information around the impacts to
customers as they go electric as well as impacts to communities as the big fleet companies
start to go all-electric. – [Husein] Daniel and Nathan,
you want to add anything? – Yeah, I’ll jump in. Again, maybe biased because I worked for 3 1/2 years in consulting, but whenever I’m looking for what are the leading-edge
thoughts around electrification or future of mobility or
anything in that space, the first places I’ll go will be the McKenzie or the big consulting firms that are putting out pretty
regular thought pieces on what they think the
future is going to look like. And relatively progressive views as well. I know Deloitte put out a piece that we’re saying the
break even where we think an electric vehicle is
going to be cost competitive with a internal combustion
engine vehicle is in 2022. So it’s not like, hey, this is a very conservative organization
that’s behind the times, a lot of these consulting firms are thinking about how to
prepare for this future and are doing a lot of the research and seeing it play out in engagements with different clients. – I definitely, sorry about that, I definitely support that, in that I think a lot of the best, most
marketable piece of information that we’ve come across have
definitely been produced by a lot of the big consulting firms. They are pretty good about producing easily digestible white papers
on this sort of material. That’s definitely the case. I don’t think I’ve got any
other cutting-edge resources that I think are widely consumable. – Great, and Bryan, before
you go to the next question, I know one of the questions you asked was from Divesh Gupta from
Baltimore Gas and Electric, and I think Divesh had a
couple thoughts on this, so if you can hear us, Divesh, go ahead and give us your thoughts. – Yeah, you know, I’m happy to. On this question, another organization that certainly a lot of
the utilities rely on is the Smart Electric
Power Alliance as well. They’ve put a couple of
white papers in the space. And I’d echo those on the
consulting companies as well. I think just this morning
one came across my desk from Navigant that I
started poring through. Just generally, I think
to the last question, in thinking about public
private partnerships, we certainly support that. There’s so much that’s going
on in the private industry that we have to leverage
from a utility perspective. But for us, I would say a huge piece of the puzzle for us is that policy and regulation piece of it. Having policy makers that are engaged, that understand the issues and that are willing to
try some different things. It is one of the frustrating parts about this pandemic response. In Maryland, for instance,
we had a bunch of legislation that was teed up to go so
at least the conversation would be happening. And of course with the
legislature wrapping up early, all of those things are
pushed until the fall. And a lot will have changed by then in terms of appetites for what legislators want to deal with. We’re hoping that climate change and electrification of transportation is still top of mind, but that is a critical piece of it. I think in Virginia, just south of us, you saw Dominion also pushing
quite a bit of legislation around electric buses, electrification, using those resources as a grid support and providing some sort of financial help to school districts to be able to do that. So it allowed for a little bit of the public private utility
partnership to happen. That kind of legislation would, but you need regulators and legislators that are willing to have
that kind of conversation. – Great, thank you. Bryan, we probably have
time for two more questions. So we’ll go back to you. – Okay, well I’ll just sort of end with a couple question that are examples of some common threads that I see appearing. I see a lot of people in the chat sort of thinking through
the cascading effect of transportation electrification. For example, Justin Pines
asks, “With the eventual “mass adoption of electric vehicles “across the transportation industry, “how do you see cities
and urban communities “needing to adjust so that
individuals can charge their cars “in densely populated areas?” And Justin notes, currently
Teslas are much more practical in suburban settings. – Nathan, you want to start with that? – Yeah, sure. So I think that they’re, I personally do think that there will be a little bit of a bifurcation in terms of the mobility ecosystems we’ll see in urban vs.
suburban and rural areas. I definitely think more of
the single-passenger model will persist for that
suburban rural environment where you’ve got those
Teslas, Bolts and whatnot. I think the urban question is
a much more interesting one that will be quite a range, perhaps mixed. I think it would be, if you want to look towards
what I think are more advanced urban mobility ecosystems, I’d look towards what exists now in Europe and a lot of the urban centers in China. And I will say that, and that I think mobility is more
equitable across the board in that both wealthy
and non-wealthy people in those areas tend to take the same, more similar modes of transportation. That’s a mix of public transport through subways, buses,
as well as a little bit of last-mile stuff through
bikes, taxis, they also walk. I think there’s a range
of different policies that can get there. I think in Europe, they’ve done a lot to ban single-passenger mobility in, or single-passenger vehicles in cities through higher gas taxes,
higher parking fees, all that kind of stuff, so I think we’ll see a
mix emerge in urban areas, but definitely the traditional model I think will for the most hold for those suburban rural areas. – Great, Ben and Daniel, either one of you have something to add? No, okay. Bryan Koen, let’s go back to
you for the last question. – Yeah, so another common
thread here in the chat box is questions related to batteries and storage capability generally. So I’ll give the last
question to Lauren Shum, who’s a 2017 Pratt graduate. And as it happens is going to be speaking on our Women In Energy
panel tomorrow at 3:00 p.m. [email protected], so quick plug there. Lauren’s question, her question states, “Increasing the range of vehicles “can come from increasing battery density, “but also from decreasing the power draw “of the vehicle itself. “What’s being done to reduce
the power draw of vehicles? “For example, reducing auxiliary load, “or increasing drive power efficiency?” – That’s a great question. Daniel, let’s start with you on that. – So I think one thing that the OEMs, I’ve done a decent amount
of work with the OEMs who are thinking about
like, vehicle innovation and I think as they’re thinking about it, they are thinking about it more from an efficiency
standpoint in terms of, it’s less about the battery and more about how do we make
the vehicle more efficient to comply with some of the regulations in a place like California,
which is always the standard for having the most efficient
fuel economy standards. So I guess speaking
from the OEM standpoint, in terms of vehicle, reducing
the weight of the vehicle, and things like that, I guess it’s part of the
entire fuel efficiency play. And a lot of that depends on what the federal government or
the state governments do in terms of setting standards. So a lot of it is a reaction to, oh we have to comply in California because that’s going to be the floor. We want to sell our cars in California. They need to be this efficient. So we’re going to solve for that. We’re going to solve for California. And I think some of those
behaviors will play out throughout the rest of the sector as electric vehicles become more dominant. – Ben, anything you want to add or Nathan? – Yeah, I think on the truck side, they’re also looking
at reducing the weight. And so instead of having
say, as much steel as they do on the truck, they would switch it to say, carbon composites. So dramatically reducing the weight. So you could take a Class
Six truck, so to speak, with its gross vehicle weight of 19,000, and maybe modify it in such a way that it reduces its GVW
down to 12,000-14,000 thereby needing a lot less
batteries in the vehicle. So maybe going from four
packs down two or three. And that’s one way of making
the batteries more efficient is reducing the truck weight. The other way is just through more efficient managed charging. And so if you know exactly the routes that these fleets are going to take, be much more mindful about
how you charge the batteries. And that way you protect and preserve the value of the battery as it goes into its secondary life six, eight, 10 years from now, it has a lot higher
value because now you’ve really managed the
charging of that battery for the last six, eight, 10 years. – Super, thank you, Ben. So I had a great time
moderating the three of you. So Nathan, Ben and Daniel, thank you. I want to turn it back to Brian Murray and let Brian have the opportunity to give some closing remarks. – Well thank you, Husein,
and thanks so much to all of our panelists
for spending time with us and to all of you for taking
part, all of the participants. I think the chat box is like a MasterClass and excellent questions. Not just questions, but
offering their own thoughts about this really exciting topic. I also want to give a special shout out to several folks from
the Energy Initiatives. Stacy Peterson, Bryan
Koen, Angela Edwards, Braden Welborn and Jacob Bratsch for all they did to prepare for this and to execute this on what, at least from my end looked,
fairly seamless execution. So please consider
following us on social media if you don’t do that already. The links should be in the chat box for Instagram, Twitter,
Facebook and I think that’s it. And sign up for our newsletter as well. Also, watch your inbox for a survey about today’s virtual event. Please take a moment to
let us know what you think and how we can improve things. Like I said, we’re new at doing this, but we plan to host more events
like this one in the future including as was just mentioned, tomorrow. And your feedback will be really valuable. So again, thanks so much
for joining us today and for participating in what I thinks was a really exciting event. Everyone, give yourself
a round of applause. Thank you very much.

Does the Future Exist – Physics Explains!

My brother is a duffer,
He makes his channel suffer, I could get more subscribers,
Only if he’d asked me ever. Subscriber now and join the science fever. Scientify screams What the heck man! Right. Sorry about that. Let’s start over. Hello everyone! Today, we’re going to talk about time…Is
the future predetermined? Does the future even exist? Dude, of course it exists. In the future, you’re going to yell at me. Stop it! See what I meant? Before we get into the topic, let’s define
our terms. The past is the time before the present, while
the future is the time after the present. Now the question arises: Does the future exist? Yes it does. or is the future just a prediction of what
might happen? Going back to the previous example, I could
say that Dumbify gave only one possible outcome. I could have also started dancing to the tune. Hmmmm…let’s use spacetime diagrams to
better understand this situation. Over a period of time in your physical space
you could be sitting stationary drinking tea, moving at a constant pace or moving randomly
to run away from Dumbify. The only constraint is that you can’t go
faster than light. This is how some of those actions look like
on a space time diagram, where the 2 yellow lines represent the constraint that you can’t
go faster than light. This part below your present on the time axis
represents your past; and the one above represents your future. Or to put it crudely, which seems to belittle
your life…these two regions represent your entire life. Now, is your path predetermined or not? This boils down to the simple idea of causality,
which needs to be followed according to Einstein’s general theory of relativity. Causality is fairly simple idea that you use
in everyday life. You get good grades because you study well. Thus, the cause ‘studying’ comes before
the effect ‘good grades’. Let us apply causality to this space time
diagram. If you want to affect me, I can only be in
your future as effect has to follow cause. If I am on the path of light, then since you
can’t move at speed of light, you can affect me only with light. In all these cases, the cause, that’s you,
is before the effect, which is me getting hurt. This is true for all points of view even when
we transform our reference frame to any other person’s frame. See, the cause is still before the effect. But if I’m outside your future light cone,
these distinctions between the past, the present and the future are pointless. However, in another observer’s reference
frame, the cause may be after the effect, as shown by the transformation. You’ve lost it. How can one person’s past be another person’s
future? I just showed how that’s possible! The past and the future make sense only with
respect to an observer, or the observer’s present, which brings in the concept of locality. A physical thing somewhere can only be directly
influenced by its surroundings. And that “somewhere” is called the ‘Local’
for particles, which is really really small — REMEMBER THIS! We can label the space dimensions of “local”
as x, y, z, and the time as t. Remember that x, y, z, and t are infinitesimally
small. Thus, we have local spacetime for you. This is the only thing that actually exists
and can be called predetermined. Because local spacetime is infinitesimally
small, the future and the past do not exist. Thus, the diagram from earlier only showed
predictions about a non existent future and a non existent past. All that matters is your local space and time,
which is attached to you. The future doesn’t exist and so it can’t
be predetermined. Congratulations! Physics can show that you have control over
your life.

[Sub][Episode 01] Future Card Buddyfight Ace Animation

Once, there was a terrible battle… Many long years have passed since that day.
But even now, I strive to become even stronger. And so I desire… A Buddy who will accompany
me as I pursue my goals! What was that? Dad? Gargantua… Punisher? Deity of Combat!
Gargantua Dragon!! Ran! Ran! Ga-woo! Today is Saturday! We hope you all enjoy our latest video! If you like this video, don’t forget to
hit like and subscribe to our channel! Now, today we’re going to share a totally wild and crazy
stunt thought up by yours truly, Ranma Kakogawa… I just thought of something great! Hey! Wait! What’s going on? That Yuga. He’s thought up
another game, hasn’t he… Oh well! If I can get that can there… He’s really going for it. Safety check? Complete. Ready when you are. Then let’s give it a try! I did it! Perfect shot! Whoa! This video is aces! The Ace of Games is too much! This kid is amazing! Now then! Let’s move on
to today’s main event. We used a water jet engine from an RC vehicle and a
super-conductive skateboard to create a flying hoverboard, so I can skate in the sky! What? Why is it chasing us? That was hilarious! That’s the Ace of Games for you! That was a major fail. But it looks like it had
a pretty good reception. So I guess it’s okay. Hey, Ranma. What is it, Yuga? Gargantua Punisher? This is amazing! This is a super-rare totally aces card!
Where did you get it? Well, it’s a long story. You know, your dad is a
super-strong legendary Buddyfighter. That’s what they say. Mom told me that too! You see! So how come
you’re not into Buddyfight? Well, I’ve always been a little interested,
but I’ve been so busy with other games. But now… Let’s give it a try! Buddyfight! Yeah! For starters, you know how there are all these parallel
worlds that are separate from the world we live in? Like Dragon World, and Star
Dragon World, and so on, right? Well, there’s a card game where you join
forces with monsters from these worlds… and that game is Buddyfight! I get it. So the people we see around town hanging
out with monsters… they’re all Buddyfighters? This is a start deck! Of course Buddyfighting is fun too, but getting a pack and strengthening your deck
with new cards is another of Buddyfight’s charms. Only two left… Choose one! This one. Whoa, you didn’t think twice! In that case, I’ll take this one. Now that I’ve set things up,
let’s film the opening video! I’m so excited! This is incredible! I am the Deity of Combat… I am Gargantua Dragon. Gargantua… Dragon? You’ve got to be kidding me! Your first pack of cards, and you just
happen to get a Buddy Rare card? Is that good? Of course it is! It means
you have a Buddy now! I’ve been a Buddyfighter for ages,
and I’ve never gotten a Buddy Rare… That’s why I don’t have a Buddy. My… Buddy? I’ve got to determine for myself… If the new heir to the Punisher is worthy. Whoa, you’re huge! What do you have to eat to get that big? So this is my Buddy… This young boy is not the kind of partner
that I expected. Indeed, he’s but a child. But perhaps this tribulation is
a new kind of training for me. Hey. Don’t just stand there silently.
Say something! Before you ask so many questions,
first you should explain who you are. Huh? Oh, right. I’m Yuga Mikado. You can call me Yuga! And you’re… Gar… ganura… Uh… Your name’s kind of hard to pronounce,
so can I call you Garga? Do as you wish. So, Garga. Will you
answer my questions now? As a Deity of Combat, I limit my speech. That is my answer to you. What does that mean? This powerful fighting spirit… I wondered who it was. I see it is one of the warriors who
once laid hands upon my sword. Who’s that? Don’t you know? That’s Mister Tasuku Ryuenji,
a very important person in the Buddy Police. He’s also a powerful Buddyfighter, and everyone in
the Buddyfight world calls him the Commissioner. You’ve certainly grown up…
Yuga Mikado. Do you know him? When we were children, your father
and I were friendly rivals in Buddyfight. I even met you a few times
when you were a newborn. Did you hear that, big brother? I can’t say I remember that. Let’s get things started.
Yuga, join me in a Buddyfight! Huh? Decks basically have at least 50 cards.
You can include up to four of the same card. Monsters, items, spells… And impacts. There are so many different
abilities depending on the card. First, I’ve got to memorize all of these. How and when you use
the card’s abilities… That is something you,
the Buddyfighter, must decide. Well then, let’s begin. First, do as I do. Okay. First, we place our Buddy
and flag cards face-down. And next… We luminize! Gather! Future dragons
soaring through the galaxy! Luminize, Future Dragoner! Now, you try. Luminize! Dradeity! A Deity’s Dragon Brigade descends! Buddy…fight! Raise the flag! Star Dragon World! Dragon World! Star Dragoner, Jackknife! Gargantua Dragon! This is a life counter. We start out with 10 life. We defend these life points while attacking.
If the opponent reaches 0 life, we win. I have the first move, so I’ll begin
with a draw, then a charge and draw. Draw… and charge and draw? Draw means to draw a card from my deck. Charge means I place one of
my hand cards in the gauge. At the start of each turn, you can draw,
and charge and draw. By the way, it used to be that you couldn’t draw
during the first turn if you had the first move. But recently, the rules changed! Next, I’ll call a monster. Rainbow Vision, Shadowscare.
Call to the center. You can call as many monsters
as you’d like during a turn. But the total size of all the monsters
on your field has to be 3 or less. Shadowscare! Attack the fighter! Wow, I really took damage. My turn ends here. Now, it’s your turn. All right! I’m doing this! My turn! Draw! Charge and… Draw. Did I get it right? Time for me to enter the fray. I call Gardog to the center! I call Garcat to the right! All right! I’m gonna do this, cat! Why? Why won’t Yuga call me? Garcat! Attack Shadowscare! Meow meow, take that, cat! Gardog, attack the fighter! Dog! I cast Earth Barrier. Due to Earth Barrier’s effect,
I gain 1 life. Wow, that’s ruff. So that’s how you use a spell. Guess that’s it for my turn. He’s cunning… I Buddy call Star Dragoner,
Jackknife to the right. Here I go! Why did his life increase? When you Buddy call… that is, when you call your
Buddy on to the field, your life increases by 1. This is known as the Buddy Gift. Jack’s ability, activate. I check the top three cards in my deck,
and place one of those cards in Jack’s soul. Crossnize! Combining with another card?
That’s totally aces! I pay 1 life and equip! J. Star Saber! So that’s how you equip an item. Star Saber’s ability, activate. I pay 1 life, and move one card from the drop zone
and the top card in my deck to Jack’s soul! I call Golden Dragoner Jackknife! Now he looks totally different! This is my powered-up form! Golden Dragoner, Jackknife. Size 2. 6000 power and defense.
A critical of 2. He has grown and matured together with me.
This is Jack’s ultimate form! Jack’s ability, activate! I send two of Jack’s soul cards to the drop zone
and destroy two of my opponent’s monsters! In addition, I gain 2 gauge and 2 life! All of Yuga’s monsters got destroyed! Commissioner Tasuku is amazing! Shadowscare. Attack the fighter! Jack! Follow me! All right! Jack has the Double Attack ability. Yuga… Looks like this will be
the end of the game. Yuga! I cast! Blue Dragon Shield! That young boy watched your fighting style… and it seems he has already
mastered the use of defense spells. My turn is over. All right, Yuga! Somehow,
he’s managed to hang on! But the Commissioner has 13 life. Yuga has 1. No matter what he does,
there’s no way he can win! From here on, it’s my turn! He’s getting serious… He’s enjoying the thrill
of this tense situation. Draw! Charge and… draw! I pay 1 gauge and… I equip! Deity Dragon Sword, Garblade! Looks like he’s learned
how to equip items, too. He’s got a good instinct for Buddyfight. Sorry to keep you waiting!
It’s your time to shine, Garga! All right! I Buddy call Gargantua
Dragon to the right! This is the Buddy Gift. Take this 1 life! Gargantua Dragon. Size 2. 7000 power.
4000 defense. A critical of 2. My most powerful Buddy,
proudly known as the Deity of Combat! All enemies are powerless before my blade! Tasuku. Do you want to use Move? Jack, Move to the center. He’s shoring up his center defense. I won’t let you! I won’t let anybody past me! Yuga’s attack landed.
So why didn’t Jack go down? Soulguard. He used the card he absorbed
into himself as a shield. Garblade can do a Double Attack! No matter how many times
you try, it’s no use! Garga! Attack Jack! I understand! I cast! Mars Barrier! I have Double Attack! He did it! The center’s open! This is where the real fight starts! I wish I could say that was true, but… Does Yuga have that card in his hand? Yuga. You’ve battled well,
for your first Buddyfight. But you don’t have any cards left
that can attack. Not a single one. The match isn’t over yet! Gargantua Dragon! G.Evo, activate! Change! Gargantua Dragon, Blast Mode! Blast Mode! Garga changed! Just as I thought! It was in his hand! In Blast Mode, I gain 1 critical. My attacks cannot be nullified, and the
damage I deal cannot be reduced. I know this is sudden, but let me explain! Yuga has unparalleled skill when
it comes to anything game-related. His eyes fell upon Gargantua
Dragon’s G.Evo ability! When the Buddyfight match began, Yuga saw the
Gargantua Dragon card in his hand and sensed intuitively… That this was not the time to use this card! Yuga preserved Gargantua Dragon for later. He withstood Tasuku’s
powerful onslaught… And waited for the trigger
for activating G-Evo… I got it! …which was the card he finally drew,
Gargantua Dragon Blast Mode! He has the keen intuition that lets him
determine the right moment to strike. And the mental fortitude
to withstand that onslaught. And the luck to draw the card he
needs at the moment he needs it most. I’m certain of it. This Yuga Mikado… Is worthy of being my Buddy! The picture on the card…
changed to a picture of me. By my power, the Gargantua
Punisher has been reborn. Its name is now the
Deity Gargantua Punisher. Deity… Gargantua Punisher… Now! Battle to your heart’s content! All right! Garga! Attack the fighter! I hear and obey! Yuga! Time for Final Phase! Final Phase! I cast! Deity… Gargantua Punisher! Impact! Deity! Gargantua… Punisher! He did it! Yuga won! It’s a victory for the Ace of Games! You were magnificent, Yuga. Winner: me! Thank you for a great Buddyfight. Let’s meet again. That was amazing! Thanks for cheering me on, Haru! I still can’t believe it… That a beginner like you
beat the Commissioner! By the way, Yuga… Is your home near here? Yeah, it’s within walking distance… Wait. Are you planning on
coming home with us? We’re home. Welcome home! You’re home later than usual. Mom. The truth is, I’ve started
playing Buddyfight. And… And starting today, this little guy
is going to be part of our family. What are you acting so surprised about? I’ve heard that this form is preferable
for living together with humans. How did you get so small? Do you use some kind of gadget? Or do you chant a spell? Here we go again. Try holding your tongue, impudent child! Don’t be so uptight. Just tell me! Silence, child! Ran! Ran! Ga-woo! Hey, fans! Starting today, we’re going
to be introducing some special cards! The card we’re introducing
today is this one! Deity Gargantua Punisher! This powerful impact deals
5 damage to your opponent. And this damage can’t
be reduced, or nullified! However, the opponent must have 5 life or less, and both
players must have no monsters in the center position. And it can only be used by paying 2 gauge when
you have a Dragod like Garga on your field. Figure out how to clear out the opponent’s
center and bring them down to 5 life or less. That’s the key to using
this card effectively! Use monsters and items to
hammer your opponent’s center! Declare Final Phase, and use
this card to finish them off! What did you think of today’s card? I hope you’ll all use this card to
build the most powerful deck ever! Now then… We’re off to work on our next video,
so don’t forget to… Check us out! I’m itching to have another Buddyfight, so my
best friend Ranma agreed to be my opponent! All right, I’ll give it a try! Next episode: Friendship Battle!
Yuga versus Ranma! Let’s do this, Garga. Join us for a Buddyfight!